Jennifer Loewenstein Archive |
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EXCERPT:
Winep is a neo-conservative think tank in DC. It's latest assessment
says more about how it plans to justify support for/encouragement of
Sharon's coming tactics vis a vis Gaza than it does about anything
else. -J
PEACEWATCH #531
December 16, 2005
THE WASHINGTON
INSTITUTE'S SPECIAL REPORTS ON THE ARAB-ISRAELI PEACE PROCESS
AL-QAEDA
INFILTRATION OF GAZA: A POST-DISENGAGEMENT ASSESSMENT
David Keyes
To view this PeaceWatch
on our website go to:
Since the U.S.-led
military
intervention in Afghanistan in 2001, al-Qaeda has responded by
splintering into affiliate groups that work along the same lines as the
parent group but have a wider degree or organizational latitude. One of
the newest may be taking shape in Gaza. The Israeli Ministry of Defense
recently reported that al-Qaeda members had crossed from Egypt into the
Gaza Strip after Israel's withdrawal from the territory. If al-Qaeda
gains a foothold in Gaza, it would be a most disturbing development not
only for the Arab-Israeli peace process, but for America's
counterterrorism efforts as well.
Historical Context
Prior to Israel's
August 2005
disengagement from Gaza and parts of the northern West Bank, some
security experts predicted that al-Qaeda would attempt to infiltrate
the evacuated areas soon thereafter. This would follow the historical
pattern in which al-Qaeda has sought security vacuums from which to
operate -- from Afghanistan in the 1980s to Somalia in the 1990s to the
Waziristan provinces near the Pakistani border today. This fear was
compounded by the realization that a perceived victory in Gaza for
Islamists might propel terrorism and extremist ideologies to new
levels. Have predictions of al-Qaeda infiltration of Gaza proven
correct?
Opportunity for Entry
to Gaza
Part of Israel's
disengagement plan included the withdrawal of all IDF presence from the
Philadelphia route along the Egyptian-Gaza border. Control of this
sensitive frontier was handed over to Egyptian and Palestinian security
personnel. But in the immediate aftermath of the transfer, huge numbers
of people streamed into and out of Gaza with no supervision, control,
or authorization. Large amounts of weapons and ammunition were
reportedly smuggled across the border. Given that al-Qaeda activity has
been uncovered in the Egyptian Sinai, there is a strong likelihood that
al-Qaeda members may have sought to exploit the security vacuum along
the Gaza-Egypt frontier in search of a new, more hospitable operating
environment. Whatever faults the Egyptian security apparatus may
suffer, it is committed to fighting all terrorist activity within its
borders, because such activity poses a clear and present danger to
Egyptian security. A similar assessment cannot be made of Palestinian
security efforts.
Israeli and Palestinian
Evidence of Al-Qaeda in Gaza
In the past, some
Palestinian
officials took great offense at even the mildest suggestion that
al-Qaeda may have taken root in the West Bank or Gaza. In 2002, for
example, Yasser Arafat flatly denied the claim of al-Qaeda
infiltration, stating that it was a "big, big, big, big lie to cover
Sharon's attacks and his crimes against our people." Yasser Abed Rabbo,
a former Palestinian information minister, said, "There are certain
elements who were instructed by the Mossad to form a cell under the
name of al-Qaeda in the Gaza Strip in order to justify the assault and
the military campaigns of the Israeli occupation army against Gaza."
Despite these
outlandish
charges, there now appears to be substantial evidence that al-Qaeda has
acquired a limited but growing presence in Gaza. This presence seems to
have increased since disengagement:
* In October 2005, the
head
of Israeli military intelligence, Maj. Gen. Aharon Zeevi-Farkash,
stated that al-Qaeda's interest in Israel was growing. "Look at the
circle that is tightening around us. Attacks in Turkey, Taba, Sharm
al-Shaykh, Katyushas in Jordan. We know that activists from the global
jihad, about ten, infiltrated Gaza from Sinai during the story we had
with Philadelphia. They will link up with those who are in the uprising
in Gaza. It is a real threat."
* Retired Brig. Gen.
Danny
Arditi, who heads the counterterrorism department of the Israeli
National Security Council, confirmed to Israeli Army Radio that
al-Qaeda had infiltrated Gaza from the southern Egyptian border after
disengagement. "The breaching of border along the Philadelphia Corridor
has allowed activists from al-Qaeda and world jihad agents into the
Gaza Strip," he said.
* The Shin Bet has been
investigating the Jihad Brigade, a suspected al-Qaeda affiliate in
Gaza. Citing an infrastructure of al-Qaeda-linked groups in Sinai, Shin
Bet director Yuval Diskin also expressed concern that they would
infiltrate the Gaza border.
The claim of al-Qaeda
influence in Gaza is not limited to Israeli sources. Palestinians have
spoken about a rise in al-Qaeda presence in the territories:
* In a September 2005
interview, leading Hamas spokesman Mahmoud az-Zahar confirmed the
infiltration of al-Qaeda members into Gaza. In addition to physical
infiltration, he said that telephone contact from Gaza with other
al-Qaeda centers in foreign countries existed as well.
* Palestinian Authority
security forces told the Jerusalem Post that a new al-Qaeda group
called Jundallah ("Allah's Brigades") had become active in Gaza,
operating mostly out of southern Gaza. This group consists primarily of
Hamas and Islamic Jihad members who feel that their organizations have
become too moderate.
* In May 2005,
Jundallah
perpetrated its first attack against Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
soldiers in Rafah. Abu Abdallah al-Khattab, a spokesman for the group,
warned of future attacks against America. "Soon everyone will see
operations [against the U.S.] that would make all the Muslims
delighted," he said.
* Immediately prior to
disengagement, three masked gunmen claimed responsibility on behalf of
al-Qaeda members in Gaza for a series of rocket attacks at Israeli
settlements.
* Leaflets in Khan
Yunis
distributed by al-Qaeda's "Palestine branch" proclaimed that the
terrorist group has started its work of uniting Muslims under an
Islamic state. The group stated that their primary goal was enforcing
sharia law worldwide. The leaflets were signed by al-Qaeda of Jihad in
Palestine.
Policy Implications
The arrival of al-Qaeda
operatives in Gaza has the potential to worsen an already problematic
security situation. Even before Israeli disengagement, there were signs
of al-Qaeda's cooperation with the local radical Islamist organization,
Hamas. Ideologically, the two groups often cite the same few Saudi
sheikhs to justify their terrorism. Operationally, there are links,
too. In 2003, Hamas terrorists were arrested by Israeli forces after
returning from an al-Qaeda training facility in Afghanistan. That same
year, according to former IDF chief of staff Lt. Gen Moshe Yaalon, two
al-Qaeda operatives were recruited into Hamas in order to execute the
suicide bombing at the Mike's Place cafe in Tel Aviv. Both men,
Mohammed Hanif and Omar Sharif, were British citizens of Pakistani
descent. Because al-Qaeda is scattered and weak, it needs all the
assistance it can get; ties between al-Qaeda and Hamas may strengthen
in coming years.
Though al-Qaeda in Gaza
currently may have only a limited numerical presence, preventing it
from gaining a real foothold needs to be an important counterterrorism
priority of all interested parties. This includes the Palestinians,
first and foremost, as well as Egypt, Israel, the United States, and
other regional and international actors. If there is one thing the
already combustible Arab-Israeli arena does not need, it is the
addition of a strong al-Qaeda operating from the Palestinian
territories.
David Keyes is a former
research intern at The Washington Institute.
Copyright 2005 THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE for Near East Policy
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Washington, D.C. 20036
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Jennifer Loewenstein
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