Kadima was born as Sharon's personal party. He was the glue
that held together the extreme right-winger Tsachi Hanegbi and the
self-declared peacenik Shimon Peres, militarist Shaul Mofaz and former
leftist trade union leader Haim Ramon.
The first thought after Sharon's massive stroke was: this
is the
end of Kadima. Without Sharon, the entire package will fall apart. Only
a miserable group of orphans will remain, something like a political
refugee camp.
But that is really not certain at all. True, if someone
joined
this project only because he adores Sharon or needs a Big Father, he
may now want to return to his former home. But if someone has already
found a new home in Kadima, he will remain.
Who? First of all, the opportunists who have no chance of
snatching a Knesset seat any other way.
But not only they. True, Kadima has no real program, no
ideology.
But its fuzzy sentiments and vague ideas can serve as a surrogate for a
program. Many people entertain a hazy longing for peace - not peace
with clear-cut contours, with a clear price, based on a compromise with
the Palestinians, but a kind of abstract "peace". This goes together
with the slogan that one cannot trust the Arabs, that with Arabs you
cannot make peace. This basic racism, perhaps a natural result of 120
years of war and conflict, expresses itself also in the feeling that
the Jewishness of Israel should be reinforced and that Jewish
traditions should be preserved, a vague, but nonetheless powerful
sentiment.
Altogether this is a popular mixture, common to a
significant
proportion of the Israeli-Jewish public. It can serve as a convenient
alternative to the explicit policies of the Left and the Right - all
the more so since the public has become deeply suspicious of programs,
ideologies and everything that looks like a miracle cure. The slogan
could be: the vaguer, the better.
Until now, the Kadima people had put their trust in
Sharon,
believing that he would know what to do when the time came. They were
sure that he had solutions - even if they did not know what they were -
indeed, without wanting to know. They knew that he knew, and that was
enough. Now this opaqueness can turn out to be an advantage in itself.
A party that has no clear answer to anything can attract everyone.
Certainly, the party called Forwards will go backwards. It
will
not reach the 42 seats promised to Sharon by the opinion polls. But how
many then? One can only guess, and no guess is worth much. My own
guess: not less than 15, not more than 30.
One has to face the fact that Sharon is leaving the political
arena empty of outstanding personalities and charismatic leaders. For
better or worse, Israel will now be a normal Western-style country,
with normal political parties headed by normal politicians.
And no politician is more normal than Ehud Olmert; the
quintessential politician, who has never been anything but a
politician, a politician pure and simple.
He is not a Great Father. Neither a glorious general nor a
great
thinker. He has no charisma, no vision, no exceptional integrity. At
the start of his career, he soon betrayed several of those who favored
him. But he is shrewd, smart, sober, ambitious and glib on TV, a
politician, without grandstanding and poses.
He landed in his present position by sheer accident. The
title
"Deputy Prime Minister" was given him as a consolation prize, because
Sharon could not satisfy his craving for the powerful Finance Ministry,
which had already been promised to Netanyahu. As compensation, Sharon
conferred on Olmert a title that was quite meaningless, because it
meant only that Olmert would chair cabinet meetings on the rare
occasions when Sharon was abroad.
Now, suddenly, the empty title turns out to be an
excellent
springboard. Automatic procedures have turned Olmert into Sharon's
temporary successor, and in politics, as is well known, nothing is more
permanent than the temporary. The first to occupy a position has a huge
advantage over all challengers.
One can trust Olmert not to do foolish things. His ego
will not
lead him into a hole, as frequently happens to Netanyahu. He is also
much more experienced and devious than Amir Peretz.
If he maintains a steady hand until the elections, he has
a chance to become the next prime minister.
Israeli politics now resemble the three fingers of a hand: Likud,
Kadima and Labor. Three fingers instead of a fist.
It is quite possible that on election day, the three will
get
almost identical results - something around 25 seats each. If one of
them does better than the others, its leader will probably be called
upon to form the next government.
While the three are practically equal, Kadima has an
advantage,
since it occupies the place in the middle. When three lie in a bed, the
one in the middle is always covered. In such a case, Olmert will be
able to form a coalition either with Likud or with Labor. He will have
no ideological qualms - he can be a leftist or a rightist, as
required.
The situation presents a challenge to Amir Peretz. Since his
nomination, his campaign has not left the ground. The massive figure of
Sharon left no space for any contenders. Sharon had the initiative,
with the media dancing around him. Now, with Olmert, Peretz has a much
greater chance - provided he does not appear to be a second Olmert.
Vagueness is good for Olmert, it is bad for Peretz.
Peretz has chosen the slogan "The Time Has Come!" A vague
slogan
that says nothing. He must move ahead, demonstrate leadership, present
daring initiatives, capture the imagination, prove that he is capable
of bringing about a revolution both in matters of peace and social
affairs. It is hard to win, easy to fail. Now it's up to him.
And all this, of course, is also true for Netanyahu on the
other side.
After the third earthquake, these elections are good for
democracy. For the first time in years, the public is faced with three
clear options, represented by three parties with three leaders:
- On the right there is Likud under Netanyahu,
championing the
continuation of the occupation and the enlargement of the settlements,
placing territory above peace.
- In the middle, Kadima under Ehud Olmert, will try
to continue
the ways of Sharon: annex territories and fix new borders for Israel
unilaterally, adding some meaningless gestures spiced with vague
slogans about peace.
- On the left, Labor under Amir Peretz will call for
practical
negotiations with the Palestinians, aimed at bringing an end to the
conflict.
If these alternatives are clear-cut, and if the candidates
do not
try to obscure the differences between them, these elections can be
really democratic, offering the public a real choice.
Voters will have to make the choice themselves, instead of
leaving their fate in the hands of the Great Father.
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